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中国经济有望在二、三季度迎来反弹

2019-03-16     牛牛财经   来源:证券日报 沈建光
文章摘要:■沈建光2019年以来,围绕六稳目标的政策措施纷至沓来,然而由于政策效果存在滞后性、经济结构性难题导致实体企业缺少鲜明的利润增长点,1月份-2月份中国大部分宏观经济数据仍然表现不佳,呈现疲软的现象。中国真正实现六稳还有多远?考虑到当前宏观政策已转….

    ■沈shenjianguang

    2019年nianyilai,围weirao“六liuwen”目mubiaodezhengcecuoshifenzhidalai,然raneryouyuzhengcexiaoguocunzaizhihouxing、经jingjijiegouxingnantidaozhishitiqiyequeshaoxianmingdelirunzengchangdian,1月yuefen-2月yuefenzhongguodabufenhongguan经济数据rengranbiaoxianbujia,呈chengxianpiruandexianxiang。中zhongguozhenzhengshixian“六liuwen”还huanyouduoyuan

    考kaolvdaodangqianhongguanzhengceyizhuanxiangjiji、中zhongmeimaoyicuoshangyeyousuojinzhan,两liangdaliyouyouzhuyubangzhuzhongguojingjijinzaozhudi,未weilaisuizhuozhengcefalitebieshi2万wan亿yiyuanjianshuijiangfeideshizhiluodi,预yujizhongguojingjiyouwangzaier、三sanjiduyinglaifandan。在zaibizhekanlai,2019年nianzhongguojingjihuojiangchengxianqiandihougaodetaishi,全quannianyouwangshixian6.3%左zuoyoudezengsu

    房fangdichanxiangguanxiaofeihuiluo

    是shizhuyaotuolei

    今jinniankainianxiaofeirengranpiruan。1月yuefen-2月yuefenshehuixiaofeipinlingshouzongetongbizengsu8.2%,与yuqunian12月yuefenjibenchiping,但danyuqunianqichexiaofeishizhuyaotuoleiyousuobutong。1月yuefen-2月yuefenqichexiaofeiyousuogaishan,同tongbizengsu-2.8%,较jiaoqunian12月yuefenjiangfushouzhai5.7个gebaifendian;但danshoufangdichanxiaoshouhuiluoyingxiang,房fangdichanxiangguanxiaofeizhengtibiaoxianbujia,建jianzhujizhuanghuangcailiaolei、家jiajuxiaofei、家jiadianxiaofeitongbizengsufenbiewei6.6%、0.7%、3.3%。此ciwai,日riyongpin、粮liangyoushipin、中zhong西xiyaopindengbixuanxiaofeijiaoqianqilueyouxiahua,化huazhuangpin、文wenhuabangong、通tongxunqicaidengxiaofeibiaoxianxiangduijiaohao

    在zaibizhekanlai,当dangqianjuminxiaofeihuiluoyutongqijingjixiaxing,就jiuyeyuqibuwen、前qianqixiaofeixindaishoudaoguifandengyinsuyouguan,虽suiranjinnian“两lianghui”以yijizaoqianshibuweilianhetuichuwenxiaofeicuoshi,如ruzhidingjiuqiche、旧jiujiadiandehuishouzhengce、推tuidonglaojiuqichebaofeigengxin、继jixuzhixingxinnengyuanqichegouzhizhengce、加jiakuaikaizhan“5G”商shangyongbushudengdeng,但danshi,相xiangbiyushinianqian,本benlunwenxiaofeizhengcemianlincaizhengyusuanyueshu、政zhengcebianjixiaoyingdijianyijipianbu、套taolidengdaodefengxianduozhongyinsudezhiyue,若ruoxiangcujinxiaofeidemingxianhuisheng,还huanxuhouxushuishoujianmian、收shourufenpeidiaozhengyijinongcuntudizhidugaigedengzhengcelihaoluodi

    政zhengcefalizhixia

    基jijiantouzilueyoufandan

    基jijiantisudaidongtouzilueyoufandan。1月yuefen-2月yuefen,固gudingzichantouzitongbizengchang6.1%,较jiao2018年nianquanniantisheng0.2%。但danzailadongtouzidesanjiamachezhong,制zhizaoyetouzibiaoxianbujia,仅jinzengchang5.9%,较jiaoshangyuexiajiang3.6%,基jijiantouzixiaofufandan,房fangdichantouzimingxianhaoyuyuqi

    从congzhizaoyetouzilaikan,主zhuyaochuantongzhizaoyerunongfushipinjiagong、有yousejinshuyelianyayanjiagong、铁tielu、船chuanbo、航hangkonghangtianheqitayunshushebeidengrengbiaoxianbujia,1月yuefen-2月yuefenjunweifuzengchang;高gaoxinjishuzhizaoyetouziyechuxianfenhua,专zhuanyongshebeizhizaoye、通tongyongshebeizhizaoyerengbaochigaoweizengchang,电dianqijixieheqicaizhizaoye,计jisuanji、通tongxinheqitadianzishebeizhizaoyetouzi1月yuefen-2月yuefenzengsuzechuxiandafuxiahua,相xiangbiquniandeliangweishuzengchang,开kainianfenbiewei-2.2%、-2.6%。

    得deyiyuzhengcelihao,基jijiantouziyouxiaofufandan。1月yuefen-2月yuefentongbizengchang4.3%,比bi2018年nianquanniantigao0.5个gebaifendian。在zaibizhekanlai,这zhehuoyujinqijijianxiangmujiasushenpi、地difangxiangmujizhongkaigongdeqingkuangxiangfu,基jijianbuduanban,托tuoditouziyujingjidexiaoguokaishizhubuxianxian;其qizhong,道daoluyunshuyetouzizengchang13%,增zengsutigao4.8个gebaifendian,铁tieluyunshuyetouzigengshidafuzengchang22.5%,提tishiliaodangqianjijianbuduanbandezhongdianfangxiang

    房fangdichantouziyousuofandan

    但danshichangrengchuyujiangwenzhizhong

    1月yuefen-2月yuefenquanguofangdichankaifatouzitongbizengchang11.6%,较jiaoqunianquannianzengchang2.1%,其qizhong,住zhuzhaitouzigongxianjiaoda,增zengsudadao18%,比biqunianquanniantisheng4.6个gebaifendian;房fangdichantouzifandanlingrenyiwai,根genjuguojiatongjijujieshi,1月yuefen-2月yuefenfangdichantouzijiakuaizhuyaoyoulianggeyuanyin,一yishiqianqitudidegouzhifeizengchangbijiaokuai;二ershijinnianyilaifangdichanqiyeshigongjinduyousuojiakuai

    实shijishang,1月yuefen-2月yuefenxinkaigongmianjizengsuyichuxianmingxianxiahua,与yutouzizengsuchuxianbeili,仅jinwei6%;房fangdichanjungongmianjizerengbaochitongbiliangweishuxiahua。销xiaoshoufangmian,开kainianhoushichangrengzaijiangwen,1月yuefen-2月yuefenquanguoshangpinfangxiaoshoumianjixiajiang3.6%,销xiaoshouezezengchang2.8%,市shichangrengranyoujiawushi。同tongshi,房fangqizijinmianrengjin,到daoweizijinzengsuxiahuazhi2.1%;2019年nianjinrufangqichangzhaigaofeng,需xugaoduguanzhufangqixianjinliuzhuangkuang

    整zhengtilaikan,后houxuxinkaigongruguobiaoxianbujia,有youkenenghuiyingxiangtouzibiaoxian;2019年nianfangdichandiaokongzhengceyijibendingdiao,逐zhubuhuiguizhongxinghou,市shichangbodongjianghuijianruo;而ersuizhuopenggaihuobihuade退tuichu,一yi线xian、二er线xianchengshiyusan线xian、四si线xianchengshidezoushikenengchuxianfenhua

    工gongyeshengchanbiaoxianbujia

    与yuzhizaoyetouzixiahuaqushiyizhi

    1月yuefen-2月yuefengongyezengjiazhitongbizengchang5.3%,较jiaoshangqishujuxiahua0.4%,创chuangqunian2月yueyilaixindi。三sandamenleilaikan,采caikuangyezengjiazhizengsujin0.3%,相xiangbiqunian12月yuefenxiahua3.3%,电dianli、热reli、燃ranqijishuishengchanhegongyingyezengsucong9.6%回huiluozhi6.8%,制zhizaoyezexiaofuhuisheng0.1%至zhi5.6%。

    主zhuyaogongyechanpinshujugaiguanbuda,其qizhong,工gongyejiqiren、智zhinengshoujijunxiahua10%以yishang;汽qichechanliangzengsurengdiandi,1月yuefen-2月yuefenxiajiang15.1%,但danyuqichezhizaoyetouzizengsuchuxianliaoyidingbeili,近jinqizhengcexiaoguohuozhengcongtouziduanxiangshengchanduanchuandao

    总zongtilaikan,2019年niankainianzhongguohongguanshujurengranchengxianxiahuataishi,但danjijiantouziyousuofandan,消xiaofeiyebaochijibenwending,制zhizaoyetouzixiahuaxuyaoguanzhu,房fangdichantouzifandanweibikeyichixu。当dangran,1月yuefen-2月yuefenyouyucunzaichunjieyinsu,可kenenghuiyingxiangdaochunjieqianhoudekaigongtianshuyujingjishengchanhuodong,造zaochengyidingchengdushangdeshujuniuqu,更gengweiminglangdejingjizoushipanduan,还huanxujiehe3月yuefenjingjishujuzonghelaikan

    综zongshang,当dangqianlianghuishifangdejijizhengcexinhao,以yijidangqianzhongmeijingjicuoshangjinzhanshunli,为weizhongguojingjiyinglaizhuanjitigongliaoliyou,有youwangzhichizhongguojingjixundi。展zhanwangweilai,倘tangruojinnian2万wan亿yiyuanjianshuijiangfeicuoshikeyiqieshiluoshi,中zhongmeitanpanruguonenggoudachengxieyi,或huoyouzhuyuqiyexinxinyutouzidegaishan,帮bangzhuzhongguojingjizaixiabannianyinglaifandan,全quannianjingjiyouwangdadao6.3%左zuoyoudeshuiping。从congchangqilaikan,市shichanghuayingshanghuanjingdegaishan、改gaigekaifangdeqieshilihao,才caishizhongguojingjiyuzibenshichangbaojiahuhangdeguanjian

    (作zuozhexijingdongshukejituanshouxijingjixuejia

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